Great Green Wall

Kate Mackenzie and Tim Sahay in Polycrisis:

Biden’s announcement this week to sharply raise tariffs on Chinese imports is an escalation in the yearslong tariff war on China. The new tariffs specifically target green goods, most notably electric vehicles, duties on which have now quadrupled to 100 percent. Tariffs on lithium-ion batteries, critical minerals, and solar cells will also be substantially increased. The measures are set to take effect in 2024 (with the exception of graphite, where Chinese dominance is most stark and tariffs begin 2026).

Why now? There is no doubt that the announcement of these tariffs are performative. With Trump leading the polls in several swing states, Biden’s decision to fly the protectionist flag is intended to win over voters.

The performative aspect is also to reassure investors in domestic manufacturing, who despite the IRA’s generous manufacturer and consumer subsidies, are worried about the flood of cheaper Chinese imports outcompeting domestically made green goods. The combination of new protective tariffs plus IRA subsidies is meant to buy time for US-based firms to catch up in green technologies.

Biden’s tariffs are more targeted than those on over $300 billion of Chinese imports introduced by Trump in 2018. But the signal they send is that tariffs on China are bipartisan; given this broad anti-China sentiment in Congress, they will be almost impossible to unwind.

Tariffs on EVs are already at 27.5 percent (Trump slapped an extra 25 on top of the standard 2.5 percent US tariff). That combined with the IRA’s anti-China tax credit design has meant that only Polestar (owned by China’s Geely) has been exporting Chinese EVs to the US. Chinese batteries, on the other hand, are still being imported but the IRA’s “foreign entity of concern” rules aim to bar the $3,750 tax subsidy from going to EVs containing battery metals processed in China, whether by foreign or Chinese firms.

More here.



The Age of Uncertainty. Liminal Time

Álvaro García Linera in Metapolis:

“Nearly all the economic forces that powered progress and prosperity over the last three decades are fading.” World Bank, March 2023Symptoms of a Torn Time

For 35 years, from 1980 to 2005, the moral and labour order of much of the world was governed by a set of basic principles. These principles encouraged an imagined and inevitable destiny for the course of societies. They underpinned the personal and family efforts with which individuals justified their daily activities, their sacrifices and their everyday strategies.

The free market was perceived as a “natural” mechanism for allocating resources, offering individuals a “niche of opportunity” for entrepreneurial ventures. Globalisation was seen as the path to a universalised humanity, where the prosperity and welfare of the world’s affluent would eventually percolate down to everyone, commensurate with their efforts. The minimalist state would liberate social energy and reduce taxation. The goal of zero fiscal deficit would shape the nation into a homestead austere in collective rights but auspicious in rewarding the competitive and successful. These guiding emblems served as perceived imperative destinies. Most governments, businesses, journalists, opinion “leaders”, social leaders, renowned academics, and families aligned their expectations of a bright future and their feasible possibilities for development and modernity with these principles.

It was the prevailing spirit of a world with a sense of direction. Societies anticipated an inevitable future. Families, a certainty of epochal proportions. Individuals saw an outlook, a predictive horizon under which they would shape their daily strategies. The distance to these goals did not matter, nor was it demoralising to face numerous failures or disruptions along the way or to consider the uneven odds of success. These were powerful ideas, part of a shared imagination, equipped with the tacit certainty of common sense, which made it possible to organise the fragmented patchwork of daily life towards a destiny of success and greatness.
More here.

Inequality and Capitalism: A conversation with Branko Milanović

Carlos Bravo Regidor in The Ideas Letter:

Carlos Bravo Regidor: Let me start with a deliberately general question: Why does inequality matter?

Branko MilanovićHigh inequality matters because it deprives many people of equal access to various activities: school, health services, good jobs, and so on. It wastes human potential and reduces social mobility; it is inefficient and unfair.

I emphasize “high” inequality because not every kind of inequality has the same consequences. Inequality-versus-equality is not a binary proposition, with equality being good and inequality, bad. Inequality is like temperature; it is a gradual thing. Temperature is zero degrees and it is 100 degrees, as well as all the degrees in between. Likewise with inequality. On the one hand, very low inequality is problematic because then people have little incentive to study or work hard, or to take risks. On the other hand, very high inequality has all sorts of negative impacts: social instability, lack of investment, distrust in government, lower economic growth. So, again, the problem is high inequality, not inequality per se.

What is the “ideal” level of inequality? We can’t put an exact number on it, but somewhere between low inequality and high inequality there is inequality that delivers the right incentives without breaking society into two.

More here.

The education of Lina Khan, whose superpower is busting monopolies

Steven Pearlstein in The Washington Post:

It is one of the recurring plotlines in the psychodrama of U.S. politics: A talented and charismatic young reformer goes to Washington, is hailed for taking on a corrupt and self-satisfied establishment, but in the end is nearly undone by inexperience, naiveté and unbending idealism. The latest “Mr. Smith” to hit the capital is Lina Khan, the crusading chair of the Federal Trade Commission who, at the age of 35, has become the wonky cult hero and legal wunderkind of a new progressive movement determined to break the economic and political power of Big Business and Big Tech.

At the top of Khan’s agenda is ending the 40-year orgy of corporate mergers that has enriched Wall Street and left industry after industry dominated by a handful of giant firms. She also vows to tap the FTC’s broad but rarely used powers to break up monopolies and prevent dominant firms from snuffing out competitors, squeezing workers and small business suppliers, and extending their dominance to new markets.

Khan’s impatience to revitalize antitrust after what she often characterizes as four decades of “failed” and “feckless” enforcement has not sat well inside the cozy, bipartisan community of lawyers and economists who specialize in antitrust law, many of whom once worked at the FTC or the antitrust division at the Justice Department. Among the commission’s professional staff, the reception has ranged from resentment to outright hostility. A series of rookie management mistakes and an embarrassing run of losses in court undermined confidence in Khan, even among those who sympathize with her mission.

She has also become a lightning rod for the criticism and contempt of the business lobby and its cheerleaders in the media, while House Republicans have made her the target of one of their ongoing partisan investigations. Apple went so far as to prevent Jon Stewart from having her as a guest on his Apple-hosted talk show’s companion podcast. More ominously, several companies that are targets of what they characterize as Khan’s “regulatory overreach” — Walmart, Amazon, Facebook and Twitter — have launched constitutional challenges to her agency’s power and independence, arguments likely to get a friendly hearing from a conservative Supreme Court.

More here.

In the Corporate World, Woke Is the Rage but Greed Is Still King

James Stewart in The New York Times:

It’s been 14 years since Goldman Sachs was vilified as a “vampire squid” by Matt Taibbi in Rolling Stone. “Organized greed always defeats disorganized democracy,” he concluded then. Goldman has since experienced some hard times, tarred by scandal (the looting of a Malaysian sovereign wealth fund) and forced to bail out of consumer banking. Big companies like Walt Disney are under attack not so much from the socialist left, but by conservatives for being too “woke.” Yet organized greed lives on, a seemingly intractable aspect of human nature, as three new business books make clear.

The age-old swing of the pendulum between greed, excess and regulation is the subject of TAMING THE OCTOPUS: The Long Battle for the Soul of the Corporation (Norton, 290 pp., $29.99), by Kyle Edward Williams, a history of efforts to temper capitalist excess through social responsibility, whether self-directed by corporations or imposed by regulators. Inevitably, greed and scandal breed regulation, which in turn provokes proponents of the free market to decry government overreach. Consider the Glass-Steagall Act, which separated commercial banking from more speculative investment banking during the Great Depression only to be relaxed by the Clinton administration more than six decades later. The cycle then begins anew.

More here.

Saturday Poem

The Patience of Ordinary Things

It is a kind of love, is it not?
How the cup holds the tea,
How the chair stands sturdy and foursquare,
How the floor receives the bottoms of shoes
Or toes. How the soles of feet know
Where they’re supposed to be.
I’ve been thinking about the patience
Of ordinary things, how clothes
Wait respectfully in closets
And soap dries quietly in the dish,
And towels drink the wet
From the skin of the back.
And the lovely repetition of stairs.
And what is more generous than a window?

by Pat Schneider
from Good Reads

Friday, May 17, 2024

In Conversation: Is intermittent fasting actually bad for your heart?

From Medical News Today:

The proponents of intermittent fasting often cite benefits such as weight loss, improved blood sugar, and reduced cholesterol. And there is some scientific evidence to support these claims — at least in the short term. But what about intermittent fasting’s effects in the long run? And could it actually do more harm than good for the human heart? Intermittent fasting is a rather contentious topic when it comes to health and well-being. While there are studies that point to its short-term benefits such as reduced cholesterol when people eat within a 10-12 hour window, or an improved gut microbiome in people with obesity, there is some conflicting evidenceTrusted Source on its benefits for weight loss.

Some studies have also shown that intermittent fasting can help lower certain heart disease risk factorsTrusted Source, such as reduced cholesterol and blood pressure. However, a recent poster presented at EPI Lifestyle Scientific Sessions 2024 in Chicago suggested that eating within an 8-hour time window may increase the risk of cardiovascular death by as much as 91%. Considering that time-restricted eating is a relatively new area of research, experts agree that there is a lack of long-term studies on the effects eating practices such as intermittent fasting have on the body, in particular the cardiovascular system.

More here.

Big Things I’ve Changed My Mind About: Keto, Carnivore, Cryotherapy, Statins, THC, Sleep Hygiene, Minimal Effective Dose Of Exercise & More

From BenGreenfieldLife.com:

As I’ve been researching and writing Boundless 2.0, I’ve found myself reevaluating many of the health and fitness strategies that I previously endorsed.
In this episode, prepare to have your perspective challenged as I discuss some of the significant shifts in thinking I’ve undergone while exploring the latest science and experimenting with biohacking.

To kick off the show, I discuss one of the biggest areas where I’ve updated my thinking — the ketogenic diet. While I was previously gung-ho about strict therapeutic ketosis for all sorts of applications, I now have a more nuanced view that involves limiting carbohydrates during the day for enhanced focus and consuming 200 to 300g in the evening to support better sleep and hormonal balance. Additionally, I’ve moved away from a saturated fat-heavy keto diet to a Mediterranean-style approach with foods like avocados, olives, oily fish, and olive oil.

Next, you’ll hear my latest thoughts on the carnivore diet — a controversial topic where everyone seems to have a different opinion. While initially intriguing for its simplicity and potential therapeutic benefits, I can’t ignore the lack of fiber and polyphenols, as well as deficiencies in essential nutrients like vitamins A, B, C, and E, and minerals like boron, calcium, potassium, and copper that come with adhering to a strict carnivore diet. Overall, while the carnivore diet may offer short-term benefits, it’s important to address these nutritional gaps for optimal health in the long run.

More here.

Friday Poem

Walking the Beach, September 10, 2001

I like seashells, Jake announces as he holds up periwinkle
after periwinkle, as if each one’s so different
it can’t be left where it is. I like periwinkles,
he says, the way kids do
when they’ve just learned a word and won’t keep
from the pleasure of saying it again
and again. I like limpets. I like mussels. I like barnacles.
I like razor clams. I like spoon shells
.
Is there nothing on the beach this kid doesn’t like?
He can’t just pick up a shell,
he’s got to declare his degree of commitment to it,
as if, at three and a half, he knows that it’s not enough
to fall in love; you’ve got to make the world
understand just how much.
I like canoe shells, Opa, but the big, spirally ones too.
and the ones with ripples. And this one
with scribble on it.
Jake greets each day
as someone might welcome a long-lost cousin
who’s crossed thousands of miles
to meet him. If these shells had the patience
to travel such great distance to get here and were willing to be
broken in the effort, then he sees it as his and Opa’s job
to gather them all. But it’s exhausting
liking so many things: shells the color of old dentures,
clams even the seagulls are tired of, the ruined armor
of horseshoe crabs. Jake throws himself into his work.
Life would be so much easier for him
if he didn’t need to see, touch, know everything,
feel that it’s all up to him
to make sense of the universe. The world can’t help
but disappoint this child. Finally
it will have to break the heart of a boy determined
to pick up every snagged fishing line, washed-in buoy,
every tar-stained dog welk, heel of a slipper shell,
ponderous ark, spotted moon.
Jake’s got a whole beach to cover
and only so much time.

by Christopher Bursk
from
The First Inhabitants of Arcadia
University of Arkansas Press, 2006

Thursday, May 16, 2024

I’m The Word “Utilize” And I’m Loving Every Moment Of Your Overblown Rhetoric

Christina Wang at McSweeney’s:

Hi there, just stopping by to thank you for your loyalty. It’s flattering, really, how you find a way to wedge me into every email, team meeting, and LinkedIn post.

Look, you and I both know why I’m summoned so frequently. I am to vocabulary what a vintage wine is to a dinner party—a not-so-subtle attempt to impress. Like a bottle of Château Lafite Rothschild, I am plucked from the linguistic cellar and dusted off to add sophistication and depth to any conversation.

After all, why settle for the tragically impotent verb “use” when you can utilize “utilize” to showcase your rock-hard lexical prowess?

More here.

Game Theory Can Make AI More Correct and Efficient

Steve Nadis in Quanta:

Imagine you had a friend who gave different answers to the same question, depending on how you asked it. “What’s the capital of Peru?” would get one answer, and “Is Lima the capital of Peru?” would get another. You’d probably be a little worried about your friend’s mental faculties, and you’d almost certainly find it hard to trust any answer they gave.

That’s exactly what’s happening with many large language models (LLMs), the ultra-powerful machine learning tools that power ChatGPT and other marvels of artificial intelligence. A generative question, which is open-ended, yields one answer, and a discriminative question, which involves having to choose between options, often yields a different one. “There is a disconnect when the same question is phrased differently,” said Athul Paul Jacob, a doctoral student at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

To make a language model’s answers more consistent — and make the model more reliable overall — Jacob and his colleagues devised a game where the model’s two modes are driven toward finding an answer they can agree on. Dubbed the consensus game, this simple procedure pits an LLM against itself, using the tools of game theory to improve the model’s accuracy and internal consistency.

More here.

Alice Munro has died at age 92

Sarah A Smith in The Guardian:

Few writers have possessed the short-story format as thoroughly as the Canadian author and Nobel laureate Alice Munro, who has died aged 92.

Although her early years as a writer were clouded by the feeling, partly the result of pressure from her publishers, that she should concentrate on producing a novel, she never embraced that genre.

Her one attempt, Lives of Girls and Women (1971), is more accurately described as a collection of interlinking tales. Throughout her career, she developed this method of cross-referencing stories and continuing themes and characters across a collection, most notably in The Beggar Maid (published in Canada as Who Do You Think You Are?), which was nominated for the Booker prize in 1980, and in the Juliet stories of the epiphanic collection Runaway (2004).

For Munro, short stories were the result of practical considerations, rather than choice.

More here.

The effects of plant-based diets on the body and the brain: a systematic review

Evelyn Medawar in Translational Psychiatry:

Western societies notice an increasing interest in plant-based eating patterns such as vegetarian and vegan, yet potential effects on the body and brain are a matter of debate. Therefore, we systematically reviewed existing human interventional studies on putative effects of a plant-based diet on the metabolism and cognition, and what is known about the underlying mechanisms. Using the search terms “plant-based OR vegan OR vegetarian AND diet AND intervention” in PubMed filtered for clinical trials in humans retrieved 205 studies out of which 27, plus an additional search extending the selection to another five studies, were eligible for inclusion based on three independent ratings.

We found robust evidence for short- to moderate-term beneficial effects of plant-based diets versus conventional diets (duration ≤ 24 months) on weight status, energy metabolism and systemic inflammation in healthy participants, obese and type-2 diabetes patients.

More here.

Cardiovascular health and cancer risk associated with plant based diets: An umbrella review

Capodici et al in Plos One:

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and cancer currently represent the leading causes of death and disability worldwide. Studies performed on large cohorts worldwide have identified several modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors. Among them, robust evidence supports diet as a major modifiable risk factor [1].A suboptimal diet, marked by insufficient consumption of fruits, vegetables, legumes, and whole grains, coupled with an excessive intake of meat (particularly red and processed), salt, refined grains and sugar, has been shown to notably elevate both mortality rates and disability-adjusted life years. Over time, these dietary choices have led to a concerning increase in health-related issues [12].

Results

Overall, vegetarian and vegan diets are significantly associated with better lipid profile, glycemic control, body weight/BMI, inflammation, and lower risk of ischemic heart disease and cancer. Vegetarian diet is also associated with lower mortality from CVDs. On the other hand, no difference in the risk of developing gestational diabetes and hypertension were reported in pregnant women following vegetarian diets. Study quality was average. A key limitation is represented by the high heterogeneity of the study population in terms of sample size, demography, geographical origin, dietary patterns, and other lifestyle confounders.

Conclusions

Plant-based diets appear beneficial in reducing cardiometabolic risk factors, as well as CVDs, cancer risk and mortality. However, caution should be paid before broadly suggesting the adoption of A/AFPDs since the strength-of-evidence of study results is significantly limited by the large study heterogeneity alongside the potential risks associated with potentially restrictive regimens.

More here.

Thursday Poem

Subway

I knew he was not in the house, my Autistic son
whose presence is a heat, a warm breath blown
backwards through my mouth into me. I could feel
my breath in the empty air and disappearing and
I couldn’t feel him.

At the stops I am lost
the doors clanging open
I feel larger than I am
and wild and their eyes
take me in and I want
to be in my room where
the subway is a map
on my wall I see even
in my sleep. But when
the doors close I feel
the movement and
release. I am small.
I am part of the engine.
I am part of the man’s
eye looking into the
dark tunnel. I am
just a brightness.
I am made of sound
and blur.

After a week the police worried about finding him
a man in every train and still it was like he had
disappeared, and I knew he could. He could drift,
forget to be human and I would have to call him
back from indifferent eyes.

When I saw him again he was playing a video game
and I hugged him and he didn’t look at me or the men
who had saved his life. He stared at the screen like
it was a future. And I knew we were not enough.
We cannot carry him fast through the darkness, fast
so his mind unravels, fast so he forgets he is grounded
in the house that is green and fifth from the corner,
third street down from the Avenue, 26 miles from
the river, thousands of miles from the true sky,
the sky that lifts us up, the sky that makes us birds.

by Joseph Humphrey
from
The Rutherford Red Wheelbarrow Poets, 2010

Wednesday, May 15, 2024

Maybe Even Build a Boat

Doug Stowe in The Hedgehog Review:

A few years ago, when my daughter was a freshman at Columbia University, one of only a few from Arkansas, I had the audacity to propose to then-president Lee Bollinger that the university add a hands-on component to its core curriculum. The core curriculum is intended to build a common framework of understanding as a baseline for academic life and what proceeds from it. Even though my academic credentials might not have caught Bollinger’s attention, I believed that I had something to offer as a craftsman and woodworker, and a father.

Of course, the classics of literature and philosophy are important, but if you look just a bit earlier in Greek philosophy than Plato and Socrates, you find Anaxagoras, who had said that man is the wisest of all animals because he has hands. Much later, Rousseau suggested that if you put young people in a workshop, their hands and brains will be equally engaged, and they will become philosophers while thinking themselves only craftsmen. There’s a certain element of beauty in that. Imagine philosophers invested concurrently with thoughts of highest ideals and with a sense of humility concerning themselves and their place in the whole operation of life. We might find an important lesson there.

More here.

Scott Aaronson Interview

Charles Jackson Paul in The Texas Orator:

Dr. Scott Aaronson is the David J. Bruton Jr. Centennial Professor of Computer Science at UT Austin. He is known for his work as a computer scientist and research into complexity theory and quantum computing, and more recently for his work at OpenAI, the creators of ChatGPT, on AI alignment. I sat down with Dr. Aaronson to talk about the nature of quantum computing, why we should care, and his thoughts on the recent developments in artificial intelligence.

Jackson: Good afternoon, Professor, thank you for joining us. Can you start by introducing yourself?

Dr. Aaronson: Thanks for having me. I’m Scott Aronson. I am a computer science professor here at UT. I’ve spent 20 years working on the theory of quantum computation. But I’m actually on leave for a couple of years now to work at OpenAI, on the theoretical foundations of AI safety.

Jackson: Can you summarize your area of research?

Dr. Aaronson: I’m a theoretical computer scientist. My training is mostly in computational complexity theory, which is the field that studies the inherent capabilities and limitations of computers, under constraints on resources. So, you know, what can you do with limited time and limited memory? What is the inherent scaling that is required to solve problems? Is it polynomial? Or is it exponential with the size of the problem that you’re trying to solve?

More here.

On Michael Bérubé’s, “The Ex-Human”

Steven Shaviro in his own blog:

Bérubé’s new book, The Ex-Human, is about science fiction. Bérubé offers thoughtful close readings of a number of classic science fiction texts: Ursula Le Guin’s The Left Hand of Darkness, Cixin Liu’s The Three-Body Problem, Margaret Atwood’s Oryx and Crake, Philip K. Dick’s Do Androids Dream of Electric Sleep? (with some reference to its film adaptation as Blade Runner), Arthur C. Clarke’s 2001 (with some reference to its better-known film adaptation by Stanley Kubrick), and Octavia Butler’s Parable series and Lilith’s Brood series.

Bérubé’s discussions of all these texts are subtle and insightful. But close reading in its own right is not the point of the book. Bérubé includes autobiographical personal reflections, and discusses writing the book in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, which deeply changed the dynamics of his own personal and family life, together with everyone else’s. Above all, though, the book is concerned with how science fiction allows us to entertain non-human perspectives upon human life and existence, and specifically to imagine the end of humanity — or rather (and better) its transformation in radical ways that exceed our capacity for imaginative projection and continued empathy.

More here.